{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "id": "ceuta-july-2026",
  "country": "ES",
  "country_slug": "spain",
  "region": "Ceuta",
  "title": "Ceuta · July 2026",
  "event_start": "2026-07-30",
  "event_end": "2026-07-31",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-09-17",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00",
  "href": "/countries/spain/events/ceuta-july-2026",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "eprs",
      "agency": "European Parliamentary Research Service",
      "organization": "European Parliamentary Research Service",
      "dataset_name": "Ceuta migrant crisis: What it means for Spain and the rest of the EU",
      "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report",
      "source_url": "https://eprs.europarl.europa.eu/contents/publications/EPRS/2026/09/EPRS_BRI%282026%29791481.html?locale=EN",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-10",
      "data_period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "data_period_end": "2026-09-01",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00",
      "update_frequency": "Ad hoc",
      "source_type": "government-report",
      "notes": "Summary and European Commission sections give different arrival estimates; the briefing does not reconcile them.",
      "raw_path": "/raw/eprs/border-events/2026-09-17/711f623d09dc607164e5b6e0f7f138e1ad4f72b2c13aff2aa6f3e3e3998b409a.html.txt",
      "sha256": "711f623d09dc607164e5b6e0f7f138e1ad4f72b2c13aff2aa6f3e3e3998b409a"
    },
    {
      "id": "council-eu",
      "agency": "Council of the European Union",
      "organization": "Council of the European Union",
      "dataset_name": "Informal video conference of home affairs ministers, 4 August 2026",
      "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report",
      "source_url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/jha/2026/08/04/",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-04",
      "data_period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "data_period_end": "2026-09-01",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00",
      "update_frequency": "Ad hoc",
      "source_type": "government-report",
      "notes": "Reviewed through web retrieval on 17 September 2026. Direct archival download returned HTTP 403; no raw file is claimed. Last source review: 5 August 2026.",
      "raw_path": null,
      "sha256": null
    },
    {
      "id": "la-moncloa",
      "agency": "Government of Spain · La Moncloa",
      "organization": "Government of Spain · La Moncloa",
      "dataset_name": "Ceuta emergency support and reception update",
      "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report",
      "source_url": "https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/gobierno/councilministers/Paginas/2026/20260901-council-press-conference.aspx",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-01",
      "data_period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "data_period_end": "2026-09-01",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00",
      "update_frequency": "Ad hoc",
      "source_type": "government-report",
      "notes": "Government-hosted English translation. Funding includes tax measures and contribution relief; allocation is not expenditure.",
      "raw_path": "/raw/la-moncloa/border-events/2026-09-17/548ecb47482d5f667750e8232e564367fb35d27e4f35c3ec8d4f71eea10cc93d.html.txt",
      "sha256": "548ecb47482d5f667750e8232e564367fb35d27e4f35c3ec8d4f71eea10cc93d"
    }
  ],
  "measurements": [
    {
      "id": "arrivals-summary",
      "label": "Arrival estimate · briefing summary",
      "value": 80000,
      "display_value": "80,000",
      "unit": "people",
      "period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "period_end": "2026-07-30",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.",
      "definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "eprs",
      "source_locator": "Summary and Introduction",
      "limitations": "Conflicts with the estimate in the European Commission section. Not a resident-population count.",
      "kind": "estimate"
    },
    {
      "id": "arrivals-commission",
      "label": "Arrival estimate · Commission section",
      "value": 50000,
      "display_value": "50,000",
      "unit": "people",
      "period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "period_end": "2026-07-30",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.",
      "definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "eprs",
      "source_locator": "European Commission",
      "limitations": "The briefing does not reconcile this estimate with its summary. Not a separate group to add.",
      "kind": "estimate"
    },
    {
      "id": "returns-assessment",
      "label": "Return assessment",
      "value": null,
      "display_value": "Majority returned",
      "unit": "qualitative",
      "period_start": "2026-08-04",
      "period_end": "2026-08-04",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Official assessment of people returned following the crossing.",
      "definition": "Official assessment of people returned following the crossing.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "council-eu",
      "source_locator": "Main results",
      "limitations": "No exact count or percentage reported. Applies to the assessment dated 4 August.",
      "kind": "qualitative"
    },
    {
      "id": "voluntary-returns",
      "label": "Voluntary returns",
      "value": 3519,
      "display_value": "3,519",
      "unit": "people",
      "period_start": "2026-08-10",
      "period_end": "2026-08-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Migrants reported to have returned voluntarily to Morocco.",
      "definition": "Migrants reported to have returned voluntarily to Morocco.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection",
      "limitations": "Partial reporting period. Cannot be subtracted from the July arrival estimate to infer people remaining.",
      "kind": "reported"
    },
    {
      "id": "deportations",
      "label": "Deportations",
      "value": 214,
      "display_value": "214",
      "unit": "people",
      "period_start": "2026-08-10",
      "period_end": "2026-08-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Deportations reported alongside voluntary returns.",
      "definition": "Deportations reported alongside voluntary returns.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection",
      "limitations": "Partial reporting period. Not the total number returned since the July crossing.",
      "kind": "reported"
    },
    {
      "id": "remaining",
      "label": "People remaining",
      "value": null,
      "display_value": "Not established",
      "unit": "people",
      "period_start": null,
      "period_end": null,
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "All people from the July crossing still present in Ceuta.",
      "definition": "All people from the July crossing still present in Ceuta.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection",
      "limitations": "The reviewed sources do not establish a complete, comparable remaining-population count. No subtraction is performed.",
      "kind": "unavailable"
    },
    {
      "id": "initial-capacity",
      "label": "Initial CETI capacity",
      "value": null,
      "display_value": "500–600",
      "unit": "places",
      "period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "period_end": "2026-07-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Approximate places available at the Temporary Immigrant Reception Centre (CETI).",
      "definition": "Approximate places available at the Temporary Immigrant Reception Centre (CETI).",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "New premises and facilities for reception and processing",
      "limitations": "Approximate source-reported capacity range, not occupancy. Other facilities have different coverage.",
      "kind": "estimate",
      "lower_bound": 500,
      "upper_bound": 600
    },
    {
      "id": "additional-capacity",
      "label": "Additional reception places",
      "value": 3400,
      "display_value": "More than 3,400",
      "unit": "places",
      "period_start": "2026-07-30",
      "period_end": "2026-09-01",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Additional places established at other reception locations by the September update.",
      "definition": "Additional places established at other reception locations by the September update.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "New premises and facilities for reception and processing",
      "limitations": "A strict lower bound, not an exact count or the total capacity of Ceuta. Does not include further places still being prepared.",
      "kind": "lower-bound",
      "comparison": "greater-than"
    },
    {
      "id": "approved-support",
      "label": "Approved support package",
      "value": 309000000,
      "display_value": "€309M",
      "unit": "EUR",
      "period_start": "2026-09-01",
      "period_end": "2026-12-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Emergency support announced for the final four months of 2026.",
      "definition": "Emergency support announced for the final four months of 2026.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Opening announcement and four pillars",
      "limitations": "Approved funding, not observed expenditure or a net fiscal cost. Includes economic support and tax measures.",
      "kind": "allocation"
    }
  ],
  "funding_components": [
    {
      "id": "funding-services",
      "label": "Essential services",
      "value": 21000000,
      "display_value": "€21M",
      "unit": "EUR",
      "period_start": "2026-09-01",
      "period_end": "2026-12-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars",
      "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.",
      "kind": "allocation"
    },
    {
      "id": "funding-security",
      "label": "Security",
      "value": 90000000,
      "display_value": "€90M",
      "unit": "EUR",
      "period_start": "2026-09-01",
      "period_end": "2026-12-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars",
      "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.",
      "kind": "allocation"
    },
    {
      "id": "funding-reception",
      "label": "Humanitarian reception",
      "value": 118000000,
      "display_value": "€118M",
      "unit": "EUR",
      "period_start": "2026-09-01",
      "period_end": "2026-12-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars",
      "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.",
      "kind": "allocation"
    },
    {
      "id": "funding-economy",
      "label": "Economic activity",
      "value": 80000000,
      "display_value": "€80M",
      "unit": "EUR",
      "period_start": "2026-09-01",
      "period_end": "2026-12-31",
      "geography": "Ceuta, Spain",
      "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.",
      "calculation_type": "source-reported",
      "numerator": null,
      "denominator": null,
      "source_id": "la-moncloa",
      "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars",
      "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.",
      "kind": "allocation"
    }
  ],
  "arrival_range": {
    "lower": 50000,
    "upper": 80000,
    "kind": "range-of-published-estimates",
    "input_ids": ["arrivals-summary", "arrivals-commission"],
    "formula": "Minimum and maximum of the two cited published estimates.",
    "limitations": "Source discrepancy, not a confidence interval or verified lower and upper bounds. The two estimates appear in different sections of the same briefing."
  },
  "methodology": "Dated official statements are recorded separately by reporting period, geography, unit and source section. Estimates are not added together. Partial-period returns are not subtracted from arrivals. Capacity is not occupancy. Approved allocations are not spending. No crime effect is inferred. These event records are not included in national population or migration totals.",
  "review": {
    "frequency": "Ad hoc",
    "status": "Arrival estimates require reconciliation",
    "automatic_publication": false
  }
}