{ "schema_version": 2, "id": "ceuta-july-2026", "country": "ES", "country_slug": "spain", "region": "Ceuta", "title": "Ceuta · July 2026", "event_start": "2026-07-30", "event_end": "2026-07-31", "last_reviewed": "2026-09-17", "updated_at": "2026-09-17T19:09:38.491165+00:00", "href": "/countries/spain/events/ceuta-july-2026", "sources": [ { "id": "eprs", "agency": "European Parliamentary Research Service", "organization": "European Parliamentary Research Service", "dataset_name": "Ceuta migrant crisis: What it means for Spain and the rest of the EU", "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report", "source_url": "https://eprs.europarl.europa.eu/contents/publications/EPRS/2026/09/EPRS_BRI%282026%29791481.html?locale=EN", "publication_date": "2026-09-10", "data_period_start": "2026-07-30", "data_period_end": "2026-09-01", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00", "update_frequency": "Ad hoc", "source_type": "government-report", "notes": "Summary and European Commission sections give different arrival estimates; the briefing does not reconcile them.", "raw_path": "/raw/eprs/border-events/2026-09-17/711f623d09dc607164e5b6e0f7f138e1ad4f72b2c13aff2aa6f3e3e3998b409a.html.txt", "sha256": "711f623d09dc607164e5b6e0f7f138e1ad4f72b2c13aff2aa6f3e3e3998b409a" }, { "id": "council-eu", "agency": "Council of the European Union", "organization": "Council of the European Union", "dataset_name": "Informal video conference of home affairs ministers, 4 August 2026", "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report", "source_url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/jha/2026/08/04/", "publication_date": "2026-08-04", "data_period_start": "2026-07-30", "data_period_end": "2026-08-04", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00", "update_frequency": "Ad hoc", "source_type": "government-report", "notes": "Reviewed through web retrieval on 17 September 2026. Direct archival download returned HTTP 403; no raw file is claimed. Last source review: 5 August 2026.", "raw_path": null, "sha256": null }, { "id": "la-moncloa", "agency": "Government of Spain · La Moncloa", "organization": "Government of Spain · La Moncloa", "dataset_name": "Ceuta emergency support and reception update", "dataset_description": "Dated official border-event report", "source_url": "https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/gobierno/councilministers/Paginas/2026/20260901-council-press-conference.aspx", "publication_date": "2026-09-01", "data_period_start": "2026-07-30", "data_period_end": "2026-09-01", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T18:59:16.947093+00:00", "update_frequency": "Ad hoc", "source_type": "government-report", "notes": "Government-hosted English translation. Funding includes tax measures and contribution relief; allocation is not expenditure.", "raw_path": "/raw/la-moncloa/border-events/2026-09-17/548ecb47482d5f667750e8232e564367fb35d27e4f35c3ec8d4f71eea10cc93d.html.txt", "sha256": "548ecb47482d5f667750e8232e564367fb35d27e4f35c3ec8d4f71eea10cc93d" }, { "id": "fiscalia-ceuta-20260911", "agency": "Fiscalía General del Estado", "organization": "Spanish Public Prosecutor’s Office", "dataset_name": "Ceuta child-protection meeting and sexual-assault proceedings update", "dataset_description": "Official statement on proceedings concerning sexual assaults against migrant women.", "source_url": "https://www.fiscal.es/en/-/peramato-y-rego-de-acuerdo-en-acelerar-el-traslado-de-ni%C3%B1os-y-ni%C3%B1as-migrantes-de-ceuta-a-la-pen%C3%ADnsula?p_l_back_url=%2Fen%2Fnoticias%3Fdelta%3D60&p_l_back_url_title=Notas+de+prensa", "publication_date": "2026-09-11", "data_period_start": "2026-07-30", "data_period_end": "2026-09-11", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T19:09:41.503727+00:00", "update_frequency": "Ad hoc", "source_type": "government-report", "notes": "More than 30 proceedings, not an exact count of completed crimes, convictions or perpetrators. The statement describes migrant women as victims. It gives no complete offender-nationality breakdown.", "raw_path": "/raw/fiscalia/ceuta/2026-09-17/5bc473b5dea248faf4c166f0f299ca253709260cd7d9896069330e0ed0f0cee6.html.txt", "sha256": "5bc473b5dea248faf4c166f0f299ca253709260cd7d9896069330e0ed0f0cee6" }, { "id": "europapress-ceuta-20260915", "agency": "Europa Press", "organization": "Europa Press Andalucía", "dataset_name": "Andalusian prosecutors report 35 sexual-assault complaints in Ceuta", "dataset_description": "News-agency reporting attributed to the Andalusian prosecutor’s office; not a directly published case-level dataset.", "source_url": "https://www.europapress.es/andalucia/noticia-fiscalia-andaluza-cifra-35-agresiones-sexuales-denunciadas-ceuta-entrada-masiva-migrantes-20260915105654.html", "publication_date": "2026-09-15", "data_period_start": "2026-07-30", "data_period_end": "2026-09-15", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T19:09:38.491165+00:00", "update_frequency": "Ad hoc", "source_type": "media-report-of-official-statement", "notes": "Secondary source: the news agency attributes this count to the Fiscalía Superior de Andalucía. A directly published primary statement with this exact figure was not located. Later cumulative update; do not add it to prior counts.", "raw_path": null, "sha256": null } ], "measurements": [ { "id": "arrivals-summary", "label": "Arrival estimate · briefing summary", "value": 80000, "display_value": "80,000", "unit": "people", "period_start": "2026-07-30", "period_end": "2026-07-30", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.", "definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "eprs", "source_locator": "Summary and Introduction", "limitations": "Conflicts with the estimate in the European Commission section. Not a resident-population count.", "kind": "estimate" }, { "id": "arrivals-commission", "label": "Arrival estimate · Commission section", "value": 50000, "display_value": "50,000", "unit": "people", "period_start": "2026-07-30", "period_end": "2026-07-30", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.", "definition": "People estimated to have crossed from Morocco into Ceuta.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "eprs", "source_locator": "European Commission", "limitations": "The briefing does not reconcile this estimate with its summary. Not a separate group to add.", "kind": "estimate" }, { "id": "returns-assessment", "label": "Return assessment", "value": null, "display_value": "Majority returned", "unit": "qualitative", "period_start": "2026-08-04", "period_end": "2026-08-04", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Official assessment of people returned following the crossing.", "definition": "Official assessment of people returned following the crossing.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "council-eu", "source_locator": "Main results", "limitations": "No exact count or percentage reported. Applies to the assessment dated 4 August.", "kind": "qualitative" }, { "id": "voluntary-returns", "label": "Voluntary returns", "value": 3519, "display_value": "3,519", "unit": "people", "period_start": "2026-08-10", "period_end": "2026-08-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Migrants reported to have returned voluntarily to Morocco.", "definition": "Migrants reported to have returned voluntarily to Morocco.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection", "limitations": "Partial reporting period. Cannot be subtracted from the July arrival estimate to infer people remaining.", "kind": "reported" }, { "id": "deportations", "label": "Deportations", "value": 214, "display_value": "214", "unit": "people", "period_start": "2026-08-10", "period_end": "2026-08-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Deportations reported alongside voluntary returns.", "definition": "Deportations reported alongside voluntary returns.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection", "limitations": "Partial reporting period. Not the total number returned since the July crossing.", "kind": "reported" }, { "id": "remaining", "label": "People remaining", "value": null, "display_value": "Not established", "unit": "people", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "All people from the July crossing still present in Ceuta.", "definition": "All people from the July crossing still present in Ceuta.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Strengthening identification processing and child protection", "limitations": "The reviewed sources do not establish a complete, comparable remaining-population count. No subtraction is performed.", "kind": "unavailable" }, { "id": "initial-capacity", "label": "Initial CETI capacity", "value": null, "display_value": "500–600", "unit": "places", "period_start": "2026-07-30", "period_end": "2026-07-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Approximate places available at the Temporary Immigrant Reception Centre (CETI).", "definition": "Approximate places available at the Temporary Immigrant Reception Centre (CETI).", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "New premises and facilities for reception and processing", "limitations": "Approximate source-reported capacity range, not occupancy. Other facilities have different coverage.", "kind": "estimate", "lower_bound": 500, "upper_bound": 600 }, { "id": "additional-capacity", "label": "Additional reception places", "value": 3400, "display_value": "More than 3,400", "unit": "places", "period_start": "2026-07-30", "period_end": "2026-09-01", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Additional places established at other reception locations by the September update.", "definition": "Additional places established at other reception locations by the September update.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "New premises and facilities for reception and processing", "limitations": "A strict lower bound, not an exact count or the total capacity of Ceuta. Does not include further places still being prepared.", "kind": "lower-bound", "comparison": "greater-than" }, { "id": "approved-support", "label": "Approved support package", "value": 309000000, "display_value": "€309M", "unit": "EUR", "period_start": "2026-09-01", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Emergency support announced for the final four months of 2026.", "definition": "Emergency support announced for the final four months of 2026.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Opening announcement and four pillars", "limitations": "Approved funding, not observed expenditure or a net fiscal cost. Includes economic support and tax measures.", "kind": "allocation" }, { "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period_start": "2026-07-30", "justice_stage": "reported-allegation-or-proceeding", "offender_nationality": null, "convictions": null, "aggregation": "non-additive-cumulative-update", "id": "sexual-assault-proceedings", "label": "Sexual-assault proceedings · 11 September", "value": 30, "display_value": "More than 30", "unit": "proceedings", "period_end": "2026-09-11", "source_id": "fiscalia-ceuta-20260911", "source_locator": "Official statement, paragraph beginning Desde el día de la entrada masiva", "definition": "Proceedings opened concerning sexual assaults against migrant women in Ceuta since the July crossing.", "population_definition": "Proceedings concerning migrant women as reported victims; perpetrator population not defined.", "limitations": "Strict lower bound, not an exact count. Proceedings are not convictions, unique offenders or proven incidents. No complete offender-nationality breakdown is provided. Do not add to later complaint updates.", "kind": "reported-proceedings-lower-bound", "comparison": "greater-than" }, { "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period_start": "2026-07-30", "justice_stage": "reported-allegation-or-proceeding", "offender_nationality": null, "convictions": null, "aggregation": "non-additive-cumulative-update", "id": "sexual-assault-complaints", "label": "Sexual-assault complaints · 15 September", "value": 35, "display_value": "35", "unit": "reported assaults", "period_end": "2026-09-15", "source_id": "europapress-ceuta-20260915", "source_locator": "Opening paragraph and cumulative-count update", "definition": "Sexual assaults reported to authorities in Ceuta after the July crossing, according to Europa Press citing Andalusian prosecutors.", "population_definition": "Reported sexual-assault allegations in the event aftermath. Not a count restricted to migrant suspects.", "limitations": "Secondary reporting of an official count. Complaints are not convictions. The article does not supply a complete offender-nationality breakdown or an independently comparable baseline. Do not sum successive updates or infer causation from timing.", "kind": "reported-allegations" } ], "funding_components": [ { "id": "funding-services", "label": "Essential services", "value": 21000000, "display_value": "€21M", "unit": "EUR", "period_start": "2026-09-01", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars", "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.", "kind": "allocation" }, { "id": "funding-security", "label": "Security", "value": 90000000, "display_value": "€90M", "unit": "EUR", "period_start": "2026-09-01", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars", "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.", "kind": "allocation" }, { "id": "funding-reception", "label": "Humanitarian reception", "value": 118000000, "display_value": "€118M", "unit": "EUR", "period_start": "2026-09-01", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars", "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.", "kind": "allocation" }, { "id": "funding-economy", "label": "Economic activity", "value": 80000000, "display_value": "€80M", "unit": "EUR", "period_start": "2026-09-01", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "geography": "Ceuta, Spain", "population_definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "definition": "Component of the approved Ceuta support package.", "calculation_type": "source-reported", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "source_id": "la-moncloa", "source_locator": "Opening announcement: four pillars", "limitations": "Components of €309M, not additional amounts or actual spending. Economic support includes tax measures.", "kind": "allocation" } ], "arrival_range": { "lower": 50000, "upper": 80000, "kind": "range-of-published-estimates", "input_ids": [ "arrivals-summary", "arrivals-commission" ], "formula": "Minimum and maximum of the two cited published estimates.", "limitations": "Source discrepancy, not a confidence interval or verified lower and upper bounds. The two estimates appear in different sections of the same briefing." }, "methodology": "Dated statements retain their reporting period, geography, unit and source type. Estimates and cumulative justice updates are not added. Partial returns do not establish people remaining. Capacity is not occupancy; allocations are not spending. Allegations and proceedings are not convictions. Temporal association does not establish a crime effect or offender nationality. Event records are excluded from national population and crime totals.", "review": { "frequency": "Ad hoc", "status": "Arrival estimates require reconciliation", "automatic_publication": false }, "previous_release_url": "/data/border-events/revisions/ceuta-july-2026-v1.json" }